Prediction Markets Gain Legal Status in Gibraltar: 1st Niche Licence Issued

Reasons Behind the Decision

Predict Street Ltd has become the 1st licensed company in the domain of prognosis markets. The brand is the official niche partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026.

The portal is currently encouraging users to register for early access. Its technological backbone is provided by ADI Chain, a blockchain-driven solutions supplier based in Abu Dhabi.

This milestone coincides with the UK’s Remote Gaming Duty increase to 40%, effective from April 1st, 2026. The launch of the certification process for prognosis platforms is intended to mitigate potential losses from the tax hike and to bolster the local economy.

Gibraltar’s Path vs International Practice

The domain of prediction websites, which enables trading on the outcomes of real-world events, is quickly growing in popularity. However, the global sphere still lacks a uniform regulatory framework for this format.

Some EU countries have already implemented strict limitations on certain niche segments, with Polymarket’s offerings among those banned.

The governments following this restrictive approach:

• Portuguese;
• Romanian;
• German;
• French;
• Dutch.

The UKGC has adopted a distinct stance by recognising prognosis platforms as part of the online gambling sector. In accordance with this decision, operators are required to obtain the necessary permits in the jurisdiction to offer their services.

The MGA is considering a comparable initiative, as stated by Silvio Schembri, Malta's Minister for the Economy, Enterprise, and Strategic Projects. He indicated that the authorities are currently deliberating on establishing separate regulations for this vertical. At present, the niche exists at the crossroads of 2 domains, leaving platform owners uncertain whether to acquire a Maltese iGaming certificate or a financial service licence.

According to the MP, this segment possesses considerable global potential, presenting extensive opportunities for technological innovation and effective audience engagement.

The region experiencing the fastest growth in this field is the US, where the local Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates these products and refers to them as “event contracts.”

Niche Legalisation: Prospects

Due to the absence of a unified international stance, most companies have not yet revealed their long-term plans. However, industry leaders like FanDuel and DraftKings are already working on projects in the US prediction platforms market. Additionally, the UK brand Matchbook has announced intentions to launch such a portal soon.

The global expert community is cautiously examining Gibraltar’s recent move, viewing it as a significant precedent for Europe’s legal landscape. Meanwhile, Great Britain continues to serve as a key reference point for local operators, where traditional sportsbooks already offer a broad array of wagering options, including bets on non-athletic events.