JP Morgan's Outlook: Performance of Macau’s Gambling Sphere in 2026

Asia Gaming Brief has shared excerpts from JP Morgan's research note forecasting Macau’s gambling sector performance in 2026.

Key Excerpts from the Report

The projected growth rate is considered moderate but sustainable. Industry earnings are predicted to outpace gross gaming revenue, with net income likely to climb by 6–7%, compared with a 5–6% increase in GGR.

JP Morgan’s specialists note that this dynamic will reduce the disparity between the financial indicators observed in 2025, when the domestic economy has seen a lag between EBITDA and GGR growth.

By segment, mass-market and slot machine GGR is forecasted to rise by 7–8% in 2026, while VIP gaming revenue is likely to decline by about 5%, reflecting tougher comparisons after solid 2025 results.

Growth That Surpasses All Forecasts

Last year, Macau’s recovery exceeded all seasonal averages and projections. The strongest performance was observed in Q4, with the highest indicators for the period in 6 years.

Let us examine core aspects:

1. December GGR growth. Gross gaming revenue rose by 14.8% YoY to MOP 20.9 billion (approximately $2.60 billion), equal to 91% of the pre-COVID-19 level.
2. Full-year profit increase. In 2025, the administrative region’s gambling sector experienced a 9% YoY upturn to MOP 247.4 billion (roughly $30.83 billion), almost doubling the bank’s initial projection of 5%.
3. Favourable analyst assessments. JP Morgan’s experts updated their findings based on the latest data, noting that December’s results clearly indicate a steady rise in expectations for the industry. All signs point to constant, ongoing development of the sphere, with demand for local entertainment activities stabilising.